An evaluation target is not a wish, it is an expectancy problem. If you know your risk per trade, reward-to-risk ratio and win rate, you can estimate how many trades a phase should take, and whether your strategy can pass at all.
Profit target calculator
Expected value assumes your statistics hold over many trades. Real sequences are streakier than averages.
The formula behind it
Expected value per trade = risk dollars × (win rate × RR − loss rate). Trades to pass = target dollars ÷ expected value. A 45% win rate at 2:1 reward-to-risk is positive expectancy ($1.35 expected per $1 risked before costs), which is why realistic passers prioritize reward-to-risk over win rate.
Worked example
$100,000 phase one account, 10% target ($10,000), 0.5% risk ($500 per trade), 2:1 RR, 45% win rate: expected value is $185 per trade, so roughly 54 trades to pass. Dropping to 0.25% risk roughly doubles the trade count but slashes the chance of a drawdown breach, a tradeoff the risk of ruin calculator makes explicit.
FAQ
Is a higher win rate better for passing?
Not necessarily. A 40% win rate at 3:1 has higher expectancy than a 60% win rate at 1:1. What protects the account is the combination of expectancy and risk size relative to the drawdown limit.
How long do I have to pass most phases?
Most firms allow 30 days for phase one, with no minimum time. If your expected trade count does not fit comfortably in the window with room for losing streaks, lower risk and extend your timeline instead of increasing size.